Global Trend Report #9

Market trend analysis – issue 9, summer edition. Based on market data from Aug 2-Aug 4, 2019. Early month analysis focusing on weekly and monthly timeframes. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

How it works:

Depending on your investment time horizon, monthly, weekly or daily analysis might be useful. For example, if you focus on medium-term investments from a few months to a year, you might prioritize weekly charts and MACD signals and use the bigger monthly picture for reference or confirmation. The daily charts and MACD signals can add value in timing entries and exits in this case. The technical picture may vary between timeframes and present itself either conflicting or confirming.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day/40 week/10 month moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI indicators.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling.

MACD buy signal = MACD line (blue) crosses signal line (orange) from below.

MACD sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

price data: for trend changes as well as buy and sell signals, closing prices are considered (on each timeframe).

Note: MACD and RSI with individual settings. Different settings may lead to different signals.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 monthly chart

SPX monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 2019.
outlook: bearish divergence of MACD and RSI with price continues, favoring either a downturn or more range-bound price action.

S&P 500 weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 24, 2019.
outlook: MACD close to weekly sell signal with RSI turning down confirming somewhat toppy price action in the monthly chart.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 monthly chart

RUT monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: price close to 10 month average, still on uptrend – with MACD sell signal from Oct 2018 still active.

Russell 2000 weekly chart

RUT weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: new weekly MACD sell signal by a tiny margin active since Aug 2. Potential new downtrend could be effected soon with price close to 40 week average.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since April 2019.

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD sell signal active since Aug 2, 2019.
outlook: retest of 40 week moving average likely next.

Germany – DAX

DAX monthly chart

DAX monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak weekly MACD buy signal active since May 2019. Outlook: price reverting back to 10 month moving average for a retest of the existing uptrend.

DAX weekly chart

DAX weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of July 15, 2019.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM monthly chart

EEM monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with monthly MACD sell signal from May 2018 still active.

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with new MACD sell signal active since Aug 2, 2019.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

weekly chart

US 30 year bonds weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: healthy uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 28, 2019.
outlook: RSI still strong and rising with price well above 200 day moving average.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

weekly chart

US 10 year bonds – Aug 2, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 28, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

VETY weekly chart

VETY Eurozone Govt bonds – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since May 20, 2019. RSI overbought and price far above 40 week moving average. Very strong trend in 2019 with no signs of exhaustion yet.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

VDET weekly chart

VDET weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 3, 2019. RSI on overbought levels for the first time since June 2017. No signs of weakness yet.

III) Metals & Commodities

Gold

Gold monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with monthly MACD buy signal active since January 2019. RSI rising and very close to overbought levels for the first time since August 2011.

Gold weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 03, 2019. RSI holding up in overbought territory so far. No signs of exhaustion yet.

Copper

Copper monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019. RSI still weak. Price is back at 2015 levels. Mid 2018, when copper started a half-year downtrend, Equities followed with a weak last quarter in 2018.

Copper weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with weekly MACD sell signal active since week of July 29, 2019.

Crude Oil – WTI

Crude Oil monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend by a small margin with weakening long-term MACD sell signal from Oct 1, 2018 still active. Price trying to conquer 10 month / 200 day moving average for a potential new uptrend. Ongoing fight of bulls and bears without a clear indication of outcome right now.

Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with weekly MACD sell signal active since Jul 15, 2019. Price failed multiple times above 40 week moving average since April, bears still in control for now.

Wheat

Wheat monthly chart

Wheat monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: weak uptrend with no clear MACD signal. Last clear monthly signal was a sell in February 2019.

Wheat weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: weak uptrend with new weekly MACD sell signal active since week of Jul 29, 2019. Make or break area right at 40 week / 200 day moving average. Price should bounce from here if uptrend is still valid.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

EURUSD monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: long-term downtrend and MACD sell signal active since May 2018. RSI flattening out a bit on low levels with no signs of a bottom yet.

EURUSD weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since July 22, 2019. Price well below 40 week / 200 day moving average. RSI showing tiny (bullish) divergence (April vs. July lows) without any upside indication yet.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

GBPUSD monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: monthly downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019. Sterling close to a retest of 2016/2017 lows around 1.19-1.20.

GBPUSD weekly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – Aug 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since April 15, 2019.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

BTCUSD weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – Aug 4, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with very weak MACD sell signal active since Jul 22, 2019. First weekly MACD sell signal since November 2018 with RSI heading down from overbought levels. Strong rebound in price in the last week of July though. Price is still far above 200 day moving average, which would be a logical target on any deeper down move. On the upside there is really not a lot between 14K and the all-time-highs around 20K.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

ETHUSD weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – Aug 4, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since July 15, 2019. Price has been quite close to 40 week moving average recently; full retest and bounce seems likely move from here.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

XRPUSD weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – Aug 4, 2019.

status: dowmtrend with weak MACD sell signal active since Jul 8, 2019. Price sticking around close to 40 week moving average, trending nowhere for around a year already. Similar price action to May 2017-Dec 2017. Seems ripe for a substantial breakout either way.

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