Global Trend Report #1

Market trend analysis solely based on price action. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice. Focusing on the bigger picture, from monthly to weekly, occasionally daily price data in order to keep emotions out of the investing game.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling

buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

I may use indicators like MACD and RSI differently than others.

Please click on the charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

monthly chart

SPX monthly Mar 15, 2019
SPX monthly – Mar 15, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Nov 30, 2018.

weekly chart

SPX weekly Mar 15

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Aug 2011, indicating significant low – extremely bearish territory not reached though (last reading dates back to Feb 2009).

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

monthly chart

NDX monthly - Mar 15, 2019
NDX monthly – Mar 15, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.

weekly chart

NDX weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
NDX weekly – Mar 15, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Mar 2009, indicating significant low – extremely bearish territory not reached though (last reading dates back to Nov 2008).

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

monthly chart

RUT - monthly chart Mar 15, 2019.
RUT monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal since Oct 1, 2018.

weekly chart

RUT weekly - Mar 15, 2019
RUT weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2011, indicating significant low.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

monthly chart

ESTX50 - Mar 15, 2019
ESTX 50 monthly – Mar 15, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD sell-signal active since Feb 1, 2018.

weekly chart

ESTX50 weekly, Mar 15, 2019.
ESTX50 weekly – Mar 15, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Feb 2016, extremely bearish territory not reached.

Emerging Markets – EEM

monthly chart

EEM  monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
EEM monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell-signal active since May 2018.
outlook: RSI rising from 2018 lows, price at 200 day moving average. MACD close to buy signal.

weekly chart

EEM weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
EEM weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 12, 2018.
outlook: Oct 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2015, indicating significant low.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30yr bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
US 30yr bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 1, 2018.
outlook: MACD & RSI falling. Potential MACD sell signal in April 2019.

weekly chart

US 30 yr weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
US 30 yr weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal since Feb 4, 2019.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10yr monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
US 10yr monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.
outlook: MACD & RSI falling. Potential MACD sell signal in April 2019.

weekly chart

US 10yr weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
US 10yr weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: neutral (at 200 day MA) with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019.

US 2 year bonds (US02)

monthly chart

US 2 yr bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
US 2 yr bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 1, 2018.

UK 30 year bonds (GB30)

monthly chart

UK 30 yr bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
UK 30 yr bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jun 1, 2018.
outlook: RSI showing extremely bearish reading from Sep-Nov 2017, indicating significant low.

UK 10 year bonds (GB10)

monthly chart

UK 10 yr bonds - Mar 15, 2019.
UK 10 yr bonds – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 2017.
outlook: RSI showing extremely bearish readings for the first time since Sep 2014.

China 30 year bonds (CN30)

monthly chart

China 30 year bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
China 30 year bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Nov 1, 2018.

China 10 year bonds (CN10)

monthly chart

China 10 year bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
China 10 year bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

monthly chart

VETY Eurozone Gov Bonds monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
VETY Eurozone Gov Bonds monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

monthly chart

VDET Emerging Market bonds ETF monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
VDET Emerging Market bonds ETF monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal.

III) Metals

Gold

monthly chart

GOLD monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
GOLD monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling from Jan 2019 high, weak MACD still in buy territory.

weekly chart

GOLD weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
GOLD weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: lows in Aug 2018 marking extremely bearish RSI reading for the first time since 2013 – indicating significant low.

Copper

monthly chart

Copper monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
Copper monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 2018.
outlook: potential MACD buy signal on Apr 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Copper weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
Copper weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

monthly chart

EURUSD monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
EURUSD monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 1, 2018.

weekly chart

EURUSD weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with no clear MACD signal active.

daily chart

EURUSD - daily, Mar 15, 2019.
EURUSD – daily, Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Mar 13, 2019.
outlook: RSI low on Mar 7 close to bearish extreme, lowest reading since Nov 2018, indicating significant low on daily chart.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
GBPUSD monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 1, 2019.
outlook: uptrend after significant low with bearish RSI extreme in Oct 2016 resumed for now with weak reading above 200 day MA.

weekly chart

GBPUSD - weekly, Mar 15, 2019.
GBPUSD – weekly, Mar 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 7, 2019.
outlook: bullish divergence in RSI (Aug and Dec 2019) manifested in move higher and new weekly uptrend since Jan 28, 2019.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

Bitcoin/USD - Mar 17, 2019.
Bitcoin/USD monthly – Mar 17, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal since May 1, 2018.
outlook: Jan 2019 lowest RSI reading since Jan 2015, extremely bearish territory not reached.

weekly chart

Bitcoin/USD weekly, Mar 17, 2019.
Bitcoin/USD weekly, Mar 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 27, 2019.
outlook: first extremely bearish RSI reading in 4 years marked in Dec 2018 indicating significant low around USD 3,130.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

monthly chart

ETHUSD monthly - Mar 17, 2019.
ETHUSD monthly – Mar 17, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.

weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly - Mar 18, 2019.
ETHUSD weekly – Mar 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 23, 2018.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018, indicating significant low around 81.20 USD.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

XRPUSD monthly - Mar 17, 2019.
XRPUSD monthly – Mar 17, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.

weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly - Mar 18, 2019.
XRPUSD weekly – Mar 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with very weak MACD buy signal active since Feb 18, 2019.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
Crude Oil monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.

weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
Crude Oil weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018 for the first time since Aug 2015 indicating significant low.

Wheat

monthly chart

Wheat monthly - Mar 15, 2019.
Wheat monthly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Wheat weekly - Mar 15, 2019.
Wheat weekly – Mar 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 11, 2019.
outlook: RSI touched oversold/extremely bearish territory briefly in the week of Mar 4, 2019 – for the first time since 2014.

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