Global Trend Report #8

Market trend analysis – issue 8, based on market data from June 28-July 3, 2019. End of July analysis focusing on monthly weekly and weekly timeframes only. Daily charts where more detail may be useful. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

How it works:

Depending on your investment time horizon, monthly, weekly or daily analysis might be useful. For example, if you focus on medium-term investments from a few months to a year, you might prioritize weekly signals and use the bigger monthly picture for reference or confirmation. The daily charts and MACD signals can add value in timing entries and exits in this case. The technical picture may vary between timeframes and present itself either conflicting or confirming.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day/40 week/10 month moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling.

MACD buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below. Green dotted line in MACD area on chart.

MACD sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above. Red dotted line in MACD area on the chart.

price data: for trend changes as well as buy and sell signals only closing prices are considered (on each timeframe).

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 monthly chart

SPX monthly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD buy signal active since June 28, 2019.
outlook: price bounced strongly at 200 day MA. Big bearish divergence in RSI needs to resolve positively in order to confirm MACD buy signal or it will be short-lived.

S&P 500 weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD new buy signal active since week of June 24, 2019.
outlook: Conflicting signals. Price at new highs not confirmed by RSI yet, which is showing a longer-term bearish divergence since early 2018.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with potential new MACD buy signal in July 2019.
outlook: Price bounced at 40 week average, uptrend continued. Like in SPX, bearish divergence between price and RSI.

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD buy signal active since July 1, 2019.
outlook: price at highs but RSI lagging behind a bit for a divergence, which should resolve if a significant breakout above the April highs at 7850 materializes.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 monthly chart

Russell 2000 monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with long-term MACD sell signal from Oct 2018 weakening but still active.

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – Jul 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD buy signal active since July 1, 2019.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since April 2019.

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of July 1, 2019.

Germany – DAX

DAX monthly chart

DAX monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 2019.

DAX weekly chart

DAX weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 24, 2019.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM monthly chart

EEM monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with long-term MACD sell signal from May 2018 weak, but still active. Potential new buy signal in July 2019, depending on this months’ close.

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 24, 2019.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30 yr bonds monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Dec 2018.

weekly chart

US 30 yr bonds weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10 yr bonds monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.

weekly chart

US 10 yr bonds weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 27, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

VETY monthly chart

VETY Eurozone Government monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since May 1, 2019.

VETY weekly chart

VETY Eurozone Government weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since May 6, 2019.
outlook: RSI extremely strong in overbought area.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

VDET monthly chart

VDET monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with active MACD buy signal.

VDET weekly chart

VDET weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 3, 2019.

III) Metals

Gold

Gold monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising and close to overbought levels for the first time since 2011.

Gold weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 3, 2019.
outlook: Weekly RSI overbought on highest levels since Sep 2011.

Copper

Copper monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019.

Copper weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since April 29, 2019.
outlook: price failed at 200 day MA for now with RSI heading down again.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

EURUSD monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: no clear trend with price right at 200 day moving average. Long-term MACD sell signal from May 2018 still active.

EURUSD weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: no clear trend after a weak close above the 200 day moving average last week. MACD buy signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: price battling at the 200 day MA. MACD buy signal and RSI rising indicating a possible new uptrend after a definitive break above 200 day MA.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

GBPUSD monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: weak RSI supporting long-term downtrend, which is weakening somewhat, as flat MACD (but still negative MACD) shows.

GBPUSD weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of April 15, 2019.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

BTCUSD monthly chart

BTCUSD monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: Healthy uptrend with RSI not overbought yet.

BTCUSD weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – July 3, 2019

status: uptrend MACD buy signal active since week of Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: weekly buy signal has been active for almost 6 months. Price is now far above 200 day moving average with RSI flattening out on high levels in overbought area.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

ETHUSD monthly chart

ETHUSD monthly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with potential new monthly MACD buy signal in July 2019 (depending on the July close).
outlook: with MACD and RSI turning up, bullish long-term picture overall.

ETHUSD weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: Steady rise from Dec 2018 lows. With RSI nearing overbought area a pause in the rise up would not be a surprise and a correction down to retest 200 day moving average would not change the overall bullish outlook.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

XRPUSD monthly chart

XRPUSD monthly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: weak uptrend with weak MACD sell signal active.

XRPUSD weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak MACD buy signal active since Feb 18, 2019.
outlook: RSI rather flat along with MACD. Price hovering around 200 day moving average.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

Crude Oil monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: no clear trend (right at 200 day moving average) with MACD sell signal from Oct 1, 2018 still active.
outlook: monthly sell signal has been active for quite some time. Price slightly above its 10 month average now, weakening the MACD sell signal.

Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: no clear trend (right at 200 day moving average) with MACD seel signal active since week of May 20, 2019.

Wheat

Wheat monthly chart

US Wheat monthly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak MACD buy signal active since June 28, 2019.
outlook: MACD and RSI confirming bullish picture.

Wheat weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – July 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: RSI turning down and price on the way to retest 200 day moving average. Should hold to confirm bullish monthly picture.

VII) Real Estate

US REITs – MSCI US REIT Index – RMZ

RMZ monthly chart

MSCI US REIT Index – RMZ monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since January 2019.

RMZ weekly chart

MSCI US REIT Index – RMZ weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak MACD sell signal active since May 6, 2019. price relatively stable since April with RSI and MACD still strong.

Global Real Estate – Nasdaq Global Real Estate Index

NQG8600 monthly chart

Nasdaq Global Real Estate monthly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since March 2019.

NQG8600 weekly chart

Nasdaq Global Real Estate weekly chart – July 3, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD buy signal active since July 1, 2019. RSI very strong near overbought zone.

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