Global Trend Report Issue 6

Market trend analysis – issue 6, based on market data from May 31-June 3, 2019. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

How it works:

Depending on your investment time horizon, monthly, weekly or daily analysis might be useful. For example, if you focus on medium-term investments from a few months to a year, you might prioritize weekly signals and use the bigger monthly picture for reference or confirmation. The daily charts and MACD signals can add value in timing entries and exits in this case. The technical picture may vary between timeframes and present itself either conflicting or confirming.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling.

MACD buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

MACD sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 monthly chart

SPX monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: new downtrend since May 31 with new MACD sell signal active.
outlook: Bearish RSI divergence in 2018-2019 indicating further weakness.

S&P 500 weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 13, 2019.
outlook: MACD and RSI heading down with price with RSI in neutral territory.

S&P 500 daily chart

SPX daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI nearing bearish area, price may soon bounce back, at least temporarily.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: new downtrend since May 31 with monthly MACD sell signal still active (since Oct 2018).
outlook: Bearish RSI divergence in 2018-2019 indicating further weakness with RSI coming down from overbought levels now.

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from close to overbought levels for the first time since Aug 2018. Price right at 40 week average, make or break – new weekly downtrend or bounce.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 30, 2019.
outlook: 200 day moving average test right now with MACD falling sharply and RSI nearing bearish levels.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 monthly chart

status: price failed at 200 day/10 month moving average. Downtrend with MACD sell signal from Oct 2018 still active.
outlook: The Russell is technically clearly the weakest of the big US stock indices, signalling weakness of the broader market vs. big caps.

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart, May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: 40 week average retest clearly failed with RSI nearing bearish levels again after the low in late 2018.

Russell 2000 daily chart

Russell 2000 daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 7, 2019. RSI almost at bearish levels.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since April 1, 2019.
outlook: uptrend challenged with price right at 10 month/200 day moving average with RSI relatively neutral.

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: 40 week/200 day moving average retest right now in play with RSI falling and MACD relatively weak.

Eurostoxx 50 daily chart

Eurostoxx 50 daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: 200 day moving average holding so far at retest with RSI at low levels but not bearish yet.

Germany – DAX

DAX monthly chart

DAX monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak monthly MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: 200 day moving average holding so far at retest with RSI relatively neutral.

DAX weekly chart

DAX weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak weekly MACD sell signal active since week of May 27, 2019.
outlook: MACD and RSI turning down from high levels, weekly uptrend still active.

DAX daily chart

DAX daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since May 3, 2019.
outlook: daily RSI nearing bearish levels with price close to 200 day moving average retest.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM monthly chart

EEM monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal from May 2018 still active.
outlook: MACD and RSI weak with price below 10 month average again.

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 6, 2019.
outlook: RSI stabilizing at low levels after falling sharply end of May.

EEM daily chart

EEM daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with daily MACD buy signal active since May 29, 2019.
outlook: RSI bouncing back from oversold levels, 200 day moving average retest from below in play.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30 year bonds monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Dec, 2018.
outlook: MACD strong and rising with RSI flattening out.

weekly chart

US 30 year bonds weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: RSI strong and rising with price well above 200 day moving average. Current strength in bonds shows risk-off sentiment in the markets.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10 year bonds monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.
outlook: RSI rising with price above 200 day moving average. 10 yr US bonds technically slightly weaker than longer term 30 year bonds.

weekly chart

US 10 year bonds weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 27, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising with price above 200 day moving average.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

VETY monthly chart

VETY Eurozone Government bonds monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: new uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.

VETY weekly chart

VETY Eurozone Government bonds weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal active since Apr 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising sharply with price, strong weekly uptrend.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

VDET monthly chart

VDET monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend active since Jan 1, 2019 with MACD strong and RSI flat.

VDET weekly chart

VDET weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 22, 2019. RSI still on high levels though it came down from close to overbought.

III) Metals

Gold

Gold monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with monthly MACD buy signal active since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: 10 month average retest held so far, RSI rising in neutral area with MACD rather weak.

Gold weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising strongly and new MACD buy signal immanent in week of June 3, 2019.

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 30, 2019.
outlook: healthy daily uptrend with RSI rising strongly.

Copper

Copper monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: new monthly downtrend with May 31 close below 200 day/10 month moving average.
outlook: RSI falling sharply with price still close to 200 day MA.

Copper weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 29, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down sharply nearing bearish levels for the first time since Oct 2018.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

EURUSD monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend from early May 2018 with MACD sell signal active and RSI flattening out on low levels.

EURUSD weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend active since May 2018 with no clear MACD signal active and RSI flat on low levels.

EURUSD daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with new MACD buy signal on June 3, 2019.
outlook: RSI with bullish divergence on daily chart from Mar to May, indicating potential bottom in price.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

GBPUSD monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2019.

GBPUSD weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of Apr 15, 2019.
outlook: weekly downtrend supported by weak MACD since early April and falling RSI.

GBPUSD daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with new MACD buy signal active since June 03, 2019.
outlook: RSI bouncing back from oversold area with MACD turning up, indicating further upside potential.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

BTCUSD monthly chart

BTCUSD monthly chart – June 2, 2019

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI back to early 2018 levels, not far from overbought area. Healthy uptrend well above 10 month moving average in price.

BTCUSD weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – June 2, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: Strong uptrend with price well-established above 200 day MA and RSI back in overbought territory for the first time since the end of the bull market in late 2017.

BTCUSD daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart – June 03, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since May 30, 2019.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA. RSI falling from overbought levels.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

ETHUSD monthly chart

ETHUSD monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA with MACD and RSI turning up. MACD close to monthly buy signal.

ETHUSD weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: RSI nearing overbought levels for the first time since Jan 2018, MACD rising steadily.

ETHUSD daily chart

ETHUSD daily chart – June 03, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal since May 29, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from extremely overbought levels in May, together with new MACD sell signal.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

XRPUSD monthly chart

XRPUSD monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active.
outlook: RSI relatively flat with MACD turning up. Technical picture weaker than in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

XRPUSD weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.
outlook: First significant breakout above 200 day moving average on weekly chart since April 2018. RSI rising sharply, now at highest level since Q1/2018.

XRPUSD daily chart

XRPUSD daily chart – June 03, 2019.

status: daily uptrend with weak MACD sell signal active since June 01, 2019.
outlook: RSI came down from overbought area in May but slightly rising again. MACD flattening out on high levels.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

Crude Oil monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price failed at 200 day/10 month moving average with MACD and RSI turning down.

Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: weekly buy signal from January 2019 overturned in May by strong push down. New downtrend established with RSI pushing towards oversold levels.

Crude Oil daily chart

Crude Oil daily chart – May 31, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 23, 2019.
outlook: Strong daily downtrend with MACD falling. RSI turned upside down from April to June, now at oversold levels making a near-term bounce in price likely.

Wheat

Wheat monthly chart

Wheat monthly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 01, 2019.
outlook: new uptrend established in May with MACD and RSI turning up. MACD close to monthly buy signal.

Wheat weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – May 31, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: Bullish divergence in April with lower lows in price and a higher RSI low resulting in a very strong upmove and a new MACD buy signal and uptrend.

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