Global Trend Report #5

Market trend analysis – issue 5, May 19, 2019. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Based on price. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling

buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: weekly uptrend since January with new MACD sell signal active since May 17, 2019.
outlook: Bearish RSI divergence (April vs. October highs) playing out so far, price headed towards 200 MA and retest.

S&P 500 daily chart

SPX daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since May 2, 2019.
outlook: RSI came down sharply in the first 2 weeks of May from overbought levels without reaching oversold area – now picking up again with daily uptrend active, 200 day moving average not fully tested yet.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq100 weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from close to overbought levels for the first time since Aug 2018. MACD weak and close to weekly sell signal.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

NDX daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 30, 2019.
outlook: RSI and MACD came down sharply in May, still weak with 200 day moving average retest still in play.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: new weekly downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 17, 2019.

Russell 2000 daily chart

Russell 2000 daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 8, 2019.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx50 weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with no clear weekly MACD signal active.
outlook: 40 week/200 day moving average not fully tested yet.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 6, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling sharply, approaching October 2018 levels.

EEM daily chart

EEM daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with daily MACD sell signal active since Apr 22, 2019.
outlook: RSI in oversold area, lowest levels since Oct 2018.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

weekly chart

US 30 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019. RSI relatively flat, MACD close to weekly buy signal.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

weekly chart

US 10 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019.

UK 30 year bonds (GB30)

UK 30 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 8, 2019.
outlook: MACD and RSI on the rise with MACD close to buy signal.

UK 10 year bonds (GB10)

weekly chart

UK 10 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since May 6, 2019.

China 30 year bonds (CN30)

weekly chart

China 30 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of Feb 18, 2019.
outlook: RSI picking up a bit after down move in March/April.

China 10 year bonds (CN10)

weekly chart

China 10 year bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: RSI picking up sharply with MACD rising for potential retest of 200 MA and new MACD buy signal.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

weekly chart

VETY Eurozone Government bonds weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal active since Apr 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising sharply with price, strong weekly uptrend.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

weekly chart

VDET weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with weak MACD sell signal active since Apr 22, 2019 and RSI flat on high levels.

III) Metals

Gold

weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: RSI picking up again after down move from bullish extreme in Feb 2019.

Copper

weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: new downtrend with close below 200 day moving average on May 17. MACD sell signal active since Apr 29, 2019.
outlook: price close to 200 day moving average with RSI and MACD heading down.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend active since early May 2018 with no clear MACD signal active and RSI flat on low levels.

daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 17, 2019.
outlook: RSI heading down sharply along with new weekly MACD sell signal.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: new weekly downtrend initiated on May 17 with MACD sell signal still active since week of Apr 15, 2019.
outlook: weekly downtrend supported by weak MACD since early April and falling RSI.

daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 13, 2019.
outlook: RSI with a sharp drop in early May, now sitting on oversold levels.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – May 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: first extremely bearish RSI reading in 4 years marked in Dec 2018 indicating significant low around USD 3,130. Strong uptrend with price well-established above 200 day MA and RSI now in overbought territory.

daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart – May 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 3, 2019.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA. RSI falling from overbought levels with MACD close to daily sell signal.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – May 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018, indicating significant low around 81.20 USD. RSI heading towards overbought levels for the first time since Jan 2018.

daily chart

ETHUSD daily chart – May 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since May 2, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from extremely overbought levels, MACD flattening out on very high levels.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – May 18, 2019.

status: potential new uptrend depending on weekly close with MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising sharply. First significant breakout above 200 day moving average on weekly chart since April 2018. RSI confirming with highest level since Q1/2018. MACD still relatively weak but positive.

daily chart

XRPUSD daily chart – May 18, 2019.

status: daily uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 2, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling sharply from overbought area for potential retest of 200 day moving average. MACD still very strong.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018 indicating significant low on weekly timeframe. As long as uptrend/40 week moving average holds, a move into the 70s and retest of 2018 highs most likely.

Oil daily chart

Oil daily chart – May 17, 2019.

status: uptrend with new MACD buy signal active since May 16, 2019.
outlook: extremely bullish daily RSI readings in Apr 2019 followed by MACD sell signal and test of 200 day MA, which is holding up so far. Bullish daily view in line with weekly picture.

Wheat

weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – May 17, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 11, 2019.
outlook: Bullish divergence in April with lower lows in price and a higher RSI low resulting in a very strong upmove last week. MACD close to buy signal with test of 40 week average likely.

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