Global Trend Report #4

Market trend analysis – issue 4, May 1, 2019. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Based on price. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling

buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 monthly chart

S&P 500 monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019 on bearish MACD and RSI divergence.

S&P 500 weekly chart

S&P 500 weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019. MACD histogram confirming strength, RSI climbing fast.
outlook: RSI with lower readings than in Sep/Oct 2018 showing small bearish divergence considering price at all-time-highs.

S&P 500 daily chart

S&P 500 daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 23, 2019.
outlook: MACD histogram very weak (fragile buy signal), RSI in overbought for the first time since Aug 2018.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart

Nasdaq 100 monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with new monthly MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: with price at all-time-highs and a MACD buy signal, RSI is still weak – showing a clear bearish divergence and indicating underlying weakness in the trend.

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI strong and climbing, close to overbought territory for the first time since Aug 2018.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 30, 2019.
outlook: RSI in extremely bullish territory with price sitting at all time highs. Bearish divergence forming.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 monthly chart

Russell 2000 monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD sell signal since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: marginal new uptrend with April close above 200 day moving average, RSI rising.

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy-signal active since Apr 1, 2019.

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx50 weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: weekly RSI nearing overbought/extremely bullish territory for the first time since Apr 2017.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM monthly chart

EEM monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising from 2018 lows, price well-established above 200 day moving average.

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 12, 2018.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 1, 2018.

weekly chart

US 30 year bonds weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019. RSI rising, MACD close to weekly buy signal.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.

weekly chart

US 10 year bonds weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 29, 2019.

UK 30 year bonds (GB30)

monthly chart

UK 30 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jun 1, 2018.

UK 10 year bonds (GB10)

monthly chart

UK 10 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 2017.
o

China 30 year bonds (CN30)

monthly chart

China 30 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: Uptrend still active with price right at 200 day moving average. MACD close to sell signal with RSI flat.

China 10 year bonds (CN10)

monthly chart

China 10 year bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

monthly chart

VETY Eurozone bonds monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal. Price right at 200 day MA.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

monthly chart

VDET monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with active MACD buy signal.

III) Metals

Gold

monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling with MACD weak but still positive. Gold price still well-contained in 1100-1350 range.

weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from bullish extreme in Feb 2019, price on the way to 200 day MA retest.

Copper

monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Mar 1, 2019.
outlook: price retesting 200 day moving average from above with weak MACD and RSI heading down.

weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 29, 2019.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2018.
outlook: price close to 200 day MA, MACD and RSI still being weak.

weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with no clear MACD signal active and RSI flat on low levels.

daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since May 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI low on Mar 7 close to bearish extreme. Bullish divergence in RSI end of April.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 1, 2019.
outlook: price holding above 200 day moving average so far with RSI rising moderately.

weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 15, 2019.
outlook: fragile weekly uptrend right at 200 day moving average.

daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 30, 2019.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

Bitcoin/US-Dollar monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2018. Price slightly above 200 day moving average, initiating new monthly uptrend.
outlook: Jan 2019 lowest RSI reading since Jan 2015, extremely bearish territory not reached.

weekly chart

Bitcoin/US-Dollar weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: first extremely bearish RSI reading in 4 years marked in Dec 2018 indicating significant low around USD 3,130. Marginal uptrend with price slightly above 200 day MA.

daily chart

Bitcoin/US-Dollar daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 12, 2019.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA. RSI trending down, creating bearish divergence which could lead to a retest of 200 day moving average.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

monthly chart

Ethereum monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.
outlook: price right at 200 day moving average testing long-term downtrend.

weekly chart

Ethereum weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018, indicating significant low around 81.20 USD.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

Ripple (XRP) monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.

weekly chart

Ripple (XRP) weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.
outlook: price rejected sharply at 200 day moving average so far, indicating further continuation of weekly downtrend in line with RSI hovering at low levels.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

Oil monthly chart

WTI Crude Oil monthly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price established above 200 day MA with RSI climbing, MACD rising without showing new monthly buy signal yet.

Oil weekly chart

WTI Crude Oil weekly chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018 indicating significant low on weekly timeframe. Both RSI and MACD strong supporting well-established uptrend.

Oil daily chart

WTI Crude Oil daily chart – May 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 25, 2019.
outlook: extremely bullish daily RSI readings in Apr 2019 followed by MACD sell signal and downturn in price – possible retest of uptrend at 200 day MA.

Wheat

monthly chart

Wheat monthly chart, May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019. RSI trending down without nearing bearish extremes yet.

weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart, May 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 11, 2019.
outlook: RSI bounce from March lows ending up in another down move, possible bullish divergence forming in case oversold RSI will not be retested again.

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