Global Trend Report #3

Market trend analysis – issue 3, April 16, 2019. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Based on price. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling

buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

monthly chart

SPX monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018 on bearish MACD and RSI divergence.
outlook: weekly and daily charts on buy signal. If strength continues, potential monthly buy signal on May 1.

weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019. MACD histogram confirming strength, RSI climbing fast.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Aug 2011, indicating significant low.

daily chart

SPX daily chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 1, 2019. MACD weakening, RSI near overbought area again.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

monthly chart

NDX monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with weakening MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.

weekly chart

NDX weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI strong and climbing, overly bullish territory not reached yet.

daily chart

NDX daily chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 1, 2019.
outlook: MACD buy signal weakening (histogram), RSI in extremely bullish territory. MACD sell signal likely.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

monthly chart

Russell 2000 monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price sneaking above 200 day MA, monthly close above would initiate new uptrend.

weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2011, indicating significant low. Price above 200 MA with new weekly uptrend active.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy-signal active since Apr 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Feb 2016.

Emerging Markets – EEM

monthly chart

EEM monthly chart -Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell-signal active since May 1, 2018.
outlook: RSI rising from 2018 lows, price well above 200 day moving average. MACD close to monthly buy signal.

weekly chart

EEM weekly chart -Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 12, 2018.
outlook: Oct 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2015, indicating significant low. RSI rising since then.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 1, 2018. MACD and RSI falling with price testing 200 day moving average. Potential trend change end of April.

weekly chart

US 30 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019. Price testing 200 day moving average.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018. No clear trend in mid-April, so uptrend still active for now. Could change depending on monthly close.
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weekly chart

US 10 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019. Price right at 200 day moving average.

US 02 year bonds (US02)

monthly chart

US 2yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 1, 2019.

UK 30 year bonds (GB30)

monthly chart

UK 30 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jun 1, 2018. RSI declining for potential retest of 200 day moving average in price.

weekly chart

UK 30 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

UK 10 year bonds (GB10)

monthly chart

UK 10 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 2017.
outlook: RSI showing extremely bearish readings for the first time since Sep 2014.

China 30 year bonds (CN30)

monthly chart

China 30yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018. Uptrend still active with price retesting 200 day moving average mid-April. Potential new downtrend depending on monthly closing price.

China 10 year bonds (CN10)

monthly chart

China 10yr bonds monthly Chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

monthly chart

VETY Eurozone bonds – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal. Price right at 200 day MA.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

monthly chart

VDET Emerging Markets Bonds monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with active MACD buy signal.

III) Metals

Gold

monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling with MACD weak but still positive. Gold price still well-contained in 1100-1350 range.

weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down from bullish extreme in Feb 2019, price on the way to 200 day MA retest.

Copper

monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Mar 2019.

weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2018.
outlook: price close to 200 day MA, potential uptrend on monthly chart in May.

weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD buy signal active since week of Apr 8, 2019.

daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 8, 2019.
outlook: RSI low on Mar 7 close to bearish extreme, lowest reading since Nov 2018, indicating significant low on daily chart.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 1, 2019.
outlook: price holding above 200 day moving average so far with RSI rising moderately from Dec 2018 lows.

weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak MACD buy signal active since Jan 7, 2019.
outlook: bullish divergence in RSI (Aug and Dec 2018) manifested in move higher and break above 200 day MA. MACD weakening, RSI still rising.

daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – Apr 16, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Apr 15, 2019.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

BTCUSD monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with MACD sell signal since May 1, 2018. Price right at 200 day moving average.
outlook: Jan 2019 lowest RSI reading since Jan 2015, extremely bearish territory not reached. New uptrend on monthly chart very close.

weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: first extremely bearish RSI reading in 4 years marked in Dec 2018 indicating significant low around USD 3,130. Marginal downtrend with price at 200 day MA.

daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 12, 2019 indicating a possible retest of 200 day MA from above.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA for now, healthy new uptrend. RSI very strong heading down from extremely bullish territory though.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

monthly chart

ETHUSD monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.
outlook: price close to 200 day MA challenging long-term downtrend.

weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018, indicating significant low around 81.20 USD.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

XRPUSD monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.
outlook: price at 200 day MA testing long term downtrend.

weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.
outlook: price recjected sharply at 200 day moving average so far, indicating continuation of downtrend in line with falling RSI.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uuptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price established above 200 day MA with RSI climbing.

weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018 for the first time since Aug 2015 indicating significant low on weekly timeframe. Weekly close above 200 day MA in first week of April confirmed new uptrend on weekly chart.

Wheat

monthly chart

Wheat monthly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – Apr 15, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 11, 2019.
outlook: RSI touched oversold/extremely bearish territory briefly in the week of Mar 4, 2019, indicating significant low. Downtrend weakening with RSI bounce from March low.

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