Global Trend Report #2

Market trend analysis at the end of Q1/start of Q2-2019. Based on price. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling

buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

monthly chart

SPX monthly chart Apr 1, 2019
SPX monthly chart, Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018 on bearish MACD and RSI divergence. Sell signal weaking since early 2019 as weekly chart showing buy signal.

weekly chart

SPX weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019. MACD histogram confirming strength, RSI climbing fast.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Aug 2011, indicating significant low – extremely bearish territory not reached though (last reading dates back to Feb 2009).

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

monthly chart

NDX monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with weakening MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.

weekly chart

NDX weekly chart, Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Mar 2009, indicating significant low.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

monthly chart

Russell 2000 monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price at 200 day MA, make or break area.

weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2011, indicating significant low. price right at 200 MA with downtrend still active for now.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

monthly chart

Eurostoxx 50 monthly – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy-signal active since Apr 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: Dec 2018 lowest RSI reading marked since Feb 2016, extremely bearish territory not reached.

Emerging Markets – EEM

monthly chart

EEM monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell-signal active since May 1, 2018.
outlook: RSI rising from 2018 lows, price at 200 day moving average. MACD close to buy signal.

weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 12, 2018.
outlook: Oct 2018 extremely bearish RSI reading marked for the first time since Aug 2015, indicating significant low.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

monthly chart

US 30 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 1, 2018.
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weekly chart

US 10 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with weakening MACD sell signal active since Feb 4, 2019.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

monthly chart

US 10 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.
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weekly chart

US 10 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD neutral and RSI turning down on Apr 1, 2019.

US 2 year bonds (US02)

monthly chart

US 02 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 1, 2019.

weekly chart

US 02 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

UK 30 year bonds (GB30)

monthly chart

UK 30 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jun 1, 2018.
outlook: RSI showing extremely bearish reading from Sep-Nov 2017, indicating significant low.

weekly chart

UK 30 yr bonds weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

UK 10 year bonds (GB10)

monthly chart

UK 10 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 2017.
outlook: RSI showing extremely bearish readings for the first time since Sep 2014.

China 30 year bonds (CN30)

monthly chart

China 30 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Nov 1, 2018.

China 10 year bonds (CN10)

monthly chart

China 10 yr bonds monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

monthly chart

Eurozone Bonds (VETY) monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD sell signal.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

monthly chart

Emerging markets bonds (VDET) monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal.

III) Metals

Gold

monthly chart

Gold monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Jan 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI falling from Jan 2019 high, weak MACD in buy territory.

weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 4, 2019.
outlook: lows in Aug 2018 marking extremely bearish RSI reading for the first time since 2013 – indicating significant low.

Copper

monthly chart

Copper monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Mar 2019.

weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

monthly chart

EURUSD monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 1, 2018.

weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD sell signal active since Mar 25, 2019.

daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 26, 2019.
outlook: RSI low on Mar 7 close to bearish extreme, lowest reading since Nov 2018, indicating significant low on daily chart.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

monthly chart

GBPUSD monthly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Feb 1, 2019.
outlook: uptrend after significant low with bearish RSI extreme in Oct 2016 resumed for now slightly above 200 day moving average.

weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 7, 2019.
outlook: bullish divergence in RSI (Aug and Dec 2019) manifested in move higher and break above 200 day MA.

daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Mar 20, 2019.
outlook: price close to 200 day moving average from above, uptrend still valid.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

BTCUSD monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with MACD sell signal since May 1, 2018.
outlook: Jan 2019 lowest RSI reading since Jan 2015, extremely bearish territory not reached. Early Apr 2019 – price close to 200 MA, still below.

weekly chart

BTCUSD weekly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 27, 2019.
outlook: first extremely bearish RSI reading in 4 years marked in Dec 2018 indicating significant low around USD 3,130. weaking downtrend with price nearing 200 day MA.

daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart – Apr 1, 2019.

status: potential new uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Mar 29, 2019.
outlook: price has to establish above 200 day MA to confirm uptrend. RSI in bullish/overbought territory.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

monthly chart

ETHUSD monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.

weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018, indicating significant low around 81.20 USD.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

monthly chart

XRPUSD monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend since Jun 1, 2018 with active MACD sell signal.

weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with weak MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

monthly chart

Crude Oil monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: unconfirmed uptrend with MACD sell signal active since Oct 1, 2018.
outlook: price climbing above 200 day MA in the first days of Apri 2019, potentially starting new monthly uptrend.

weekly chart

status: unconfirmed uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 14, 2019.
outlook: extremely bearish RSI reading in Dec 2018 for the first time since Aug 2015 indicating significant low on weekly timeframe. price has to mark weekly close above 200 day MA to confirm uptrend on weekly chart.

Wheat

monthly chart

Wheat monthly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 1, 2019.

weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – Apr 2, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Feb 11, 2019.
outlook: RSI touched oversold/extremely bearish territory briefly in the week of Mar 4, 2019, followed by a bounce in price without generating a MACD buy signal on the weekly chart so far.

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