Global Trend Report #7

Market trend analysis – issue 7, based on market data from June 14-June 18, 2019. Mid-month analysis focusing on weekly and daily timeframes only. Global stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities. Subjective, for information only, no investment advice.

How it works:

Depending on your investment time horizon, monthly, weekly or daily analysis might be useful. For example, if you focus on medium-term investments from a few months to a year, you might prioritize weekly signals and use the bigger monthly picture for reference or confirmation. The daily charts and MACD signals can add value in timing entries and exits in this case. The technical picture may vary between timeframes and present itself either conflicting or confirming.

definitions:

uptrend = price > 200 day/40 week/10 month moving average. Uptrend stronger, if supported by rising MACD and RSI.

downtrend = price < 200 day moving average. Downtrend stronger, if MACD and RSI falling.

MACD buy signal = MACD crosses signal line from below.

MACD sell signal = MACD crosses signal line from above.

price data: for trend changes as well as buy and sell signals only closing prices are considered (on each timeframe).

MACD and RSI with individual settings.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I) Global stock markets

US – S&P500 – SPX

S&P 500 weekly chart

S&P 500 weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 13, 2019.
outlook: price bounced strongly at 200 day MA with MACD still in positive territory and close to buy signal, depending on this weeks’ close.

S&P 500 daily chart

SPX daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 5, 2019.
outlook: RSI with strong bounce from lowest levels since December 2018 in early June – indicating a significant low on daily chart around 2730.

US – Nasdaq100 – NDX

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: Price bounced at 40 week average, uptrend still active with MACD positive and RSI picking up again.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 6, 2019.
outlook: 200 day moving average held up so far with MACD and RSI rising. RSI hit oversold levels end of May, indicating a significant low on the daily chart in the 6950-7000 area.

US – Russell 2000 – RUT

Russell 2000 weekly chart

Russell 2000 weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: potential new uptrend (depending on this weeks’ close) with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: Strong bounce after break of 40 week average with RSI rising. If weekly uptrend is confirmed by close above 40 week MA this week, new highs are in play.

Russell 2000 daily chart

Russell 2000 daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: new uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 5, 2019. RSI bounced back from close to bearish levels in early June.

Europe – Eurostoxx50 – ESTX50

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart

Eurostoxx 50 weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD sell signal active since week of May 20, 2019.
outlook: 40 week/200 day moving average test with price bounce. RSI rising again with MACD positive and not far from a new buy signal.

Eurostoxx 50 daily chart

Eurostoxx 50 daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 5, 2019.
outlook: Close to new highs in price with RSI nearing overbought area for the first time since the April highs.

Germany – DAX

DAX weekly chart

DAX weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with weak weekly MACD sell signal active since week of May 27, 2019.
outlook: MACD and RSI picking up again, MACD buy signal likely if strong close this week.

DAX daily chart

DAX daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 6, 2019.

Emerging Markets – EEM

EEM weekly chart

EEM weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend based on last weeks close. Potential new uptrend at the end of this week with MACD sell signal from May 6 still active.
outlook: RSI rising, currently in neutral area.

EEM daily chart

EEM daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: new uptrend with daily MACD buy signal active since May 29, 2019.

II) Bonds

US 30 year bonds (US30)

weekly chart

US 30 year bonds weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: RSI still strong and rising with price well above 200 day moving average.

US 10 year bonds (US10)

weekly chart

US 10 year bonds weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 27, 2019.

Eurozone Bonds – VETY EUR GOV ETF

VETY weekly chart

VETY Eurozone Government bonds weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Apr 1, 2019.
outlook: RSI still rising, now in overbought area for the first time since August 2016.

Emerging Markets Bonds – VDET ETF

VDET weekly chart

VDET Emerging Markets bonds weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 3, 2019.
status: RSI on overbought levels for the first time since June 2017.

III) Metals

Gold

Gold weekly chart

Gold weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: well-established uptrend with MACD buy signal active since week of June 3, 2019.
outlook: RSI rising and nearing overbought levels again.

Gold daily chart

Gold daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: strong uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 30, 2019.
outlook: RSI holding up in overbought territory with MACD on very high levels.

Copper

Copper weekly chart

Copper weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since Apr 29, 2019.
outlook: RSI picking up, retest of 200 day MA likely.

Copper daily chart

Copper daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since June 3, 2019.
outlook: RSI picking up sharply from oversold area, indicating significant low on daily chart at the end of May.

IV) FX Markets

Euro/US-Dollar – EURUSD

EURUSD weekly chart

EURUSD weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend active since May 2018 with very weak MACD buy signal active end of May. RSI picking up a bit, thus another retest of 40 week average is in play.

EURUSD daily chart

EURUSD daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since June 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI coming down, 1.11 area might be tested again.

British Pound/US-Dollar – GBPUSD

GBPUSD weekly chart

GBPUSD weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: weekly downtrend with MACD sell signal active since week of Apr 15, 2019.
outlook: weekly downtrend supported by weak MACD since early April and falling RSI.

GBPUSD daily chart

GBPUSD daily chart – June 18, 2019

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since June 17, 2019.
outlook: RSI close to oversold area again, slightly turning up. If a bullish divergence can form, 1.25 could be a significant low with upside potential at least to the 200 MA area.

V) Crypto Markets

Bitcoin/US-Dollar – BTCUSD (Bitstamp)

BTCUSD weekly chart

Bitcoin/US-Dollar weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since Jan 21, 2019.
outlook: Price well-established above 200 day MA and RSI in overbought territory.

BTCUSD daily chart

Bitcoin/US-Dollar daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with daily MACD buy signal active since June 14, 2019.
outlook: price well-established above 200 day MA, RSI still close to overbought levels but with a bearish divergence (higher high in price, lower high in RSI compared to May.

Ethereum/US-Dollar – ETHUSD (Bitfinex)

ETHUSD weekly chart

ETHUSD weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with active MACD buy signal since Dec 17, 2018.
outlook: RSI nearing overbought levels with MACD rising steadily.

ETHUSD daily chart

ETHUSD daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal since June 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI turning down a bit again showing some bearish divergence since April.

Ripple/US-Dollar – XRPUSD (Bitstamp)

XRPUSD weekly chart

XRPUSD weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with very weak MACD buy signal active since Feb 25, 2019.
outlook: RSI holding up at highest level since Q1/2018.

XRPUSD daily chart

XRPUSD daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: daily uptrend with MACD buy signal active since June 16, 2019.

VI) Commodities

Crude Oil – WTI

Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude Oil weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD sell signal active since May 20, 2019.

Crude Oil daily chart

Crude Oil daily chart – June 18, 2019.

status: downtrend with MACD buy signal active since June 14, 2019.
outlook: RSI bouncing from oversold area, supporting MACD buy signal.

Wheat

Wheat weekly chart

Wheat weekly chart – June 18, 2019.

status: uptrend with MACD buy signal active since May 20, 2019.
outlook: Bullish divergence in April with lower lows in price and a higher RSI low resulting in a very strong upmove.

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